Like Serial Thriller said, the trade-in price means absolutely nothing.
I was the CFO of serveral dealerships for 11 years and Fleet/Leasing Mgr for 2. "Blowing up (inflating) the numbers" is routine when the buyer is buried in the trade - owes more than the vehicle is worth. Trust me, no consumer can "make money" buying a new vehicle annually and trading it in on another one.
Two important events have HUGELY negatively impacted the financial future of many undiciplined consumers:
1 - The finance companies began offering extended loans on vehicles. First they went from 36 months to 48 months. Now they lend for up to 72 months (that's SIX years), maybe even longer. How long do you think it takes before the borrower has "real equity" in the vechicle? How much money the consumer "thought" he saved by making the deal will be lost because of the interest he'll pay over the life of the loan? Answer: all . . . and then some.
2 - Congress passed a law eliminating the deductibility of interest on our tax returns for consumer credit accounts (auto laons, personal loans, credit cards, revolving charge accounts, etc). The banks and mortgage companies saw this as a tremendous opportunity so they began offering no-application fees and quick-processing on home equity loans while touting the interest on this loans are generally tax deductible (see competent tax counsel regarding your own situation). So what do undiciplined consumers do? They borrow from a home equity loan to buy all sorts of depreciating "stuff" and fun things to do like vacations they can not afford any other way. Yes, I know the home equity loan rates are pretty low. So what! The one thing that most Americans USED to protect, the equity in their home, has been and is being squandered.
Being a published author of financial planning material and speaking internationally does not make me an expert. Anyone can do both. I have counseled people (usually pro bono) who are so deeply in debt that it is effecting their marriage, family, job, personal feeling of well being and their financial future. It isn't pretty. It's like not having to explain the gruesomeness of war to someone who has been there.
Is my post about motorcycles? You decide.